Trump cites Fed Reserve paper linking immigration to 30% of home price rises

Trump shared a report suggesting a working paper from the Federal Reserve ties Biden-era illegal immigration to a significant share of U.S. home price increases.

First Published: July 7, 2026, 10:43 PM ET

WHITE HOUSE — Donald Trump has mentioned the source (see justthenews) that a Federal Reserve working paper suggests illegal immigration under Joe Biden caused 30% of home price increases on a Truth Social post on July 7, 2026 at 9:34 PM EST.

Here is the full post on [truthsocial]: “Fed Reserve working paper suggests Biden illegal immigrant wave caused 30% of home price increases: https://justthenews.com/government/security/fed-reserve-working-paper-suggests-biden-illegal-immigrant-wave-drove-home”

The post references a report claiming that economists within the Federal Reserve System have produced a working paper examining the relationship between large-scale illegal immigration during the Biden administration and surging residential real estate prices across the United States. The paper reportedly estimates that the influx of undocumented migrants accounted for roughly 30% of the increase in home prices during the period studied.

Federal Reserve working papers are preliminary research documents authored by economists affiliated with the Fed’s Board of Governors and its twelve regional banks (see minneapolisfed.org). These papers are early drafts of academic research that often serve as preprints before publication in scholarly journals. They do not represent the official position of the Federal Reserve or any of its regional banks and are subject to peer review and revision before formal publication (see chicagofed.org).

The distinction between a working paper and an official policy statement is significant. Working papers circulate within the research community for feedback and scrutiny, and their conclusions may change substantially before final publication (see bostonfed.org). Regional Federal Reserve banks such as those in Minneapolis, Chicago, Boston, and Dallas each maintain their own working paper series covering a wide range of economic topics including labor markets, housing, and immigration (see dallasfed.org).

Housing affordability has been a central political issue in recent years, with median home prices rising sharply across much of the country. Economists have pointed to a range of factors driving the increases, including low interest rates, limited housing supply, pandemic-era migration patterns, and increased demand from both domestic and foreign buyers. The working paper cited by Trump appears to isolate immigration as one contributing variable among many.

Trump has returned to the subject of immigration repeatedly on his social media platform. In the last 30 days, 23 of 554 Trump posts were on the topic of immigration, making it one of his most frequent subjects during that period.

The paper’s findings are likely to fuel further debate over the economic consequences of immigration policy, particularly as lawmakers weigh proposals on border enforcement and housing supply. Whether the research survives peer review and is published in a major journal will determine how much weight policymakers and economists assign to its conclusions.