Trump cites Fed Reserve paper linking immigration to 30% home price surge

Trump shared a report claiming a Federal Reserve working paper ties Biden-era illegal immigration to a sharp increase in U.S. housing costs.

First Published: July 6, 2026, 2:32 AM EST

WHITE HOUSE — Donald Trump mentioned the source (see justthenews) claiming a Federal Reserve working paper suggests illegal immigration during the Biden administration drove up home prices by 30% on a Truth Social post on July 5, 2026 at 9:21 PM EST.

Here is the full post on [truthsocial]: “Fed Reserve working paper suggests Biden illegal immigrant wave drove up home prices 30%: https://justthenews.com/government/security/fed-reserve-working-paper-suggests-biden-illegal-immigrant-wave-drove-home”

The post links to a Just the News article that references a working paper produced within the Federal Reserve system. Federal Reserve working papers are preliminary academic research documents written by economists affiliated with the Fed’s Board of Governors or its regional Reserve Banks (see minneapolisfed.org). These papers undergo internal review but do not represent the official positions or policy conclusions of the Federal Reserve.

Working papers published by regional Federal Reserve Banks such as the Minneapolis Fed, Chicago Fed, Cleveland Fed and Boston Fed serve as early drafts of scholarly research that may later be revised and submitted to peer-reviewed journals (see chicagofed.org). The distinction between a working paper and a final published study is significant because working papers have not completed the full peer-review process and their findings remain subject to revision, replication and critique by the broader economics community (see clevelandfed.org).

The claim that immigration drove a 30% increase in home prices carries major implications for the national housing affordability debate. Housing costs have been a persistent concern for American households, and any connection between immigration levels and price increases would intersect with both economic and immigration policy discussions. The Federal Reserve system regularly publishes research on housing markets, labor economics and demographic trends, though individual papers reflect the views of their authors rather than institutional policy stances (see federalreserveauthority.com).

Trump’s post arrives amid ongoing political disputes over the effects of immigration on the U.S. economy. Critics of large-scale immigration have pointed to increased demand for housing as one driver of rising costs, while other economists have argued that immigration also expands the labor supply in construction and related industries, which can moderate prices over time (see bostonfed.org).

In the last 30 days, 19 of 538 Trump posts on Truth Social addressed the topic of immigration, making it one of his recurring subjects on the platform.